Factual data · GO/NO-GO verdict · Financial model calibrated over 24 months
In Antananarivo, fast-casual is gaining share at the expense of traditional lunch: lower ticket, faster service, proximity to office and student traffic. Initial investment is contained (86.0 M MGA-220.0 M MGA MGA) and payback faster than full-service.
Dominant profile: business · capitale
Competitive density: moderate (first-mover advantage possible).
Dominant players: independents (60-70 %) competing with established chains (McDonald's, Subway, Starbucks).
Positioning recommendation: Competitive positioning required: sector margin is tight, edge comes from operational efficiency.
| Indicator | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 revenue | 160.0 M MGA → 340.0 M MGA | ×1,18 (ramp-up) | ×1,32 (steady-state) |
| Target net margin | negative to low | 9 % | 15 % |
| Working capital (days of revenue) | 45-60 d | 35-50 d | 30-45 d |
| Cumulative ROI | investment | ~50 % | Payback at 24 months |
These ratios are calibrated on MarketLens sector benchmarks and adjusted by local coefficients of Antananarivo, Madagascar (cost −65% vs average, income −82% vs average).
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